discuss strategies for ending dictatorship, while ensuring that no liberal democracies, including Israel and America, are harmed in the process


Postby kerravon » 2011-02-18 00:02

Once again we see the brave people of Libya taking to the streets to demand freedom. It is really adding insult to injury for a dictator like Gaddafi to call his military coup and continued dictatorship a "revolution". It's also a tragedy that Libya's resources are spent propping up anti-freedom dictators around the world. The Libyan people want nothing to do with that.

Unfortunately, as previously documented, there is the harsh military reality of automatic weapons. In Tunisia and Egypt the protests resulted in what were effectively military coups. In both cases those military rulers were apparently nice enough to give control back to civilians. There are decent, or somewhat-decent people everywhere in the world, so this should not come as a surprise. Also there were factors that would have probably have prevented them from seizing absolute control anyway.

But there is a way of making Libya a success story. A Tunisian-led external military invasion. Tunisia can call on Egypt to assist with the heavy lifting in this scenario. If absolutely necessary, Turkey could be called on, but it is better if no-one in any way related to Western governments is involved in this. Why? Because a few years ago Gaddafi agreed to dismantle his nuclear weapons program in exchange for promises that he wouldn't be invaded. Thus he was safer without his nukes than with them. This eliminated a security nightmare for the West and allows other dictators still pursuing nukes (ie Iran) to be tackled without too many complications.

But Tunisia has no such constraint. Ideally when doing external invasions you need a cover story. In Iraq the cover story was WMD. Actually it was genuinely believed that there were WMD there, but no-one cared much if there weren't any. Neocons permanently want dictators replaced by democracy (or some similar equation) regardless of whether it is Buma or Haiti. If you want to know why we dislike dictators, you just need to ask us. But honestly, if you don't know what's wrong with an Iraqi man having his tongue cut out, don't bother asking. You're already my enemy and I won't waste my breath.

Anyway, Tunisia doesn't have any great cover story, but it can still muster up something. It can say that the Libyan dictator supported Ben Ali and that this was a crime against the Tunisian people and thus an Act of War. The fact that France would be covered by the same line is beside the point. If someone says "what about France?" just say "we don't want a multi-pronged war, we're trying to liberate Libya - something which we believe is within our capability to actually do, unlike mounting a seaborne invasion of a friggin western superpower with nukes".

You shouldn't have any problem. Egypt has a shitload of Western weaponry. And what little Libya does have, is not united. Most of those Libyans are probably willing to change sides. The people certainly are willing to change sides. That's why Gaddafi doesn't have democratic elections in the first place - he knows he will lose.

So a combination of supplying weapons to the Libyan people, external invasion, Libyan security forces changing sides, should lead to a quick victory. Libya doesn't have the same Sunni/Shiite religious bigotry that allowed years of insurgency in Iraq (or more accurately - they are all Sunni regardless). The result should look much more like Tunisia - a relatively quick success.

But please, don't leave the Libyan people to fight alone! Give them real help, not just words of encouragement. The only thing real is air-to-air missiles. Modern wars are won in the air.
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Re: libya

Postby kerravon » 2011-02-18 12:43

Here is how it could all be done - probably in 24 hours:

Country Planes Budget (US$billion)
Tunisia 20 0.5
Egypt 216 6
Turkey 240 19

Libya 40 3.5

This is a fairly crude way of measuring military strength, but at least it is an indication.

Basically, Tunisia may well be able to win this on its own - but it would need the Libyan air force to start changing sides. The air force is the exact group that is least likely to defect. Otherwise Libya's 40 planes will defeat Tunisia's 20.

But that's fine. All Tunisia needs to do is ring up the Egyptians, and Egypt's 216 planes will overwhelm Libya's 40.

And if that isn't enough, it could call on Turkey - 240 planes roughly, which will make mince-meat of Libya.

raw data ...


20 combat aircraft

$0.5 billion

Egypt ... #Air_Force

The Egyptian Air Force has 216 F-16s (plus 20 on order) making it the 4th largest operator of the F-16 in the World. It has about 579 combat aircraft

$6 billion

Turkey ... t_aircraft

The Air Force had previously received 8 F-16s that were directly purchased from the United States, bringing the number of total F-16s received by the Air Force to 240

$19 billion


40 SU22

$3.5 billion
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Location: Australia, Free World South

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